APC leader and public affairs expert Kassim Afegbua recently stated in an interview with TVC News that the political climate in 2027 is very favorable to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reelection. He said that any attempt by opposition leaders like Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar to run for and win the president in 2027 would upset the current political equilibrium and probably lead to conflicts across the country.
Afegbua noted that if Atiku, a northerner, were to return to the ballot and win, it would mean the South is denied its rightful opportunity to complete a two-term cycle in the presidency. Similarly, should Peter Obi, representing the South-East, emerge victorious, it would translate to the North staying out of power for another eight years — a possibility Afegbua claims the northern political class is unlikely to accept.
He emphasized that the current zoning and rotational agreement, while informal, remains a guiding principle for stability and fairness in Nigeria’s power-sharing framework. According to him, any disruption of this understanding — whether by ambition or adventurism — could open the door to further regional dissatisfaction and political instability.
“If Atiku wants to alter the political calculation by emerging President, for example, it will mean that he is denying Southern Nigeria four or eight years, as the case may be, of our opportunity to complete our term. If Peter Obi is going to come as President, it will mean that the North will be out of power for another eight years, which they will not agree to. The odds favour Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Presidency for a second term starting from 2027, so that after four years in 2031, it will be the turn of the North. Except there’s political adventurism to alter this political algorithm — that’s where you could have another Presidency maybe coming from the South East. And I doubt if the North will allow that,” Afegbua stated.
