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2027: Not Money, Not Popularity; Three Things That Will Decide Nigeria’s Next President —Yabagi Sani

National Chairman of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Yabagi Sani, has stated that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s decision to contest or not contest in the 2027 presidential election will have little impact on the eventual outcome. Speaking during an interview with Channels Television, Sani emphasized that Nigeria’s leadership choices are rarely about individual candidates, but rather about the deeper political and societal dynamics that continue to shape the nation’s electoral landscape.

According to him, issues such as power rotation, regional politics, religious identity, and the influence of incumbency play a far greater role than popularity or political wealth. He argued that while Atiku has earned significant political capital through his long-standing involvement and network across the country, these strengths may not be enough to secure the presidency in 2027. The real determinants, he said, lie in entrenched structural factors and identity-based politics that have long governed Nigeria’s leadership decisions.

Sani also stressed that Nigeria’s democracy is still battling with “primordial sentiments” that override merit or national interest. He noted that even if Atiku had all the resources and nationwide support, his chances could still be limited by where he comes from or what religion he belongs to. In his view, true political power in Nigeria hinges on one’s regional identity and alignment with institutional forces, not just ambition or popularity.

“Atiku can decide to run or not to run, that does not move the needle as far as what we’re talking about is concerned. The issue is that we have primordial sentiments,” Sani said. “Atiku can run or not run, these issues are the ones that will define or determine the next president of this country. What are they? Power of incumbency, regional politics, ethnicity.

“If Atiku Abubakar is from the South today, I’d say it’s up to him to say yes or no, having accumulated the kinds of accolades that he has in terms of politics, having networks all over the place. But it doesn’t depend on the networks, it doesn’t depend on how rich you are, it doesn’t depend on how popular you are. It depends on: are you from the South or from the North, are you a Muslim or a Christian, or are you the one in the saddle that can bring all the institutions together and say this is what I want.”

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